First indications of an outlook on direct employment regarding construction and operations & maintenance phases written by Erik Knol and Erwin Coolen.
Until 2019 around 1 GW of offshore wind capacity has been realized in the Dutch waters of the North Sea. In 2020 two offshore wind farms (each 0.7 GW) are to be installed resulting in an offshore wind capacity of around 2.4 GW by the beginning of 2021. The coming years three additional offshore wind farms - each with a capacity of around 0.7 GW - will be installed as part of the so-called Roadmap 2023. This results in a cumulative capacity of approx. 4.7 GW in 2024. The government increases the pace of deployment of offshore wind farms as from 2024. This is Roadmap 2030. The ambition is to install an average of at least 1 GW per year in the period 2024-2030. This results in a major expansion of the installed offshore wind power in the coming decade: from around 1 GW in 2019 to 11.5 GW in 2030 (e.g. MinEZK, 2020b).
The roll-out of offshore wind power in the Dutch waters of the North Sea will continue after 2030 and it is expected that the deployment rate will further increase. We label the post 2030 Dutch offshore wind capacity potentials used in in this working paper as the Outlook 2050. As suggested by RVO we set this Outlook 2050 on 55 GW installed Dutch offshore wind capacity in 2050 being the average of two energy outlook scenarios of the North Sea Energy Outlook (NEO) of DNV GL (2020). In this working paper post 2030 decommissioning is out of scope and therefore not taken into account. This results in 43.5 GW added capacity between 2030-2050 for this working paper’s Outlook 2050.
Purpose of this working paper
The purpose of this working paper is to give first indications of an outlook on post 2030 direct employment related to Dutch offshore wind farms. Project boundaries for this working paper are given by Netherlands Enterprise Agency RVO. This is the reason why this working paper has a limited scope and a limited depth (also in terms of methodologies) and provides figures which are indicative. The focus is on the construction and operations & maintenance (O&M) phases of Dutch offshore wind farms; included job roles in the employment indications are given in appendix 2. The working paper includes direct employment indications related to Roadmap 2030 and the above-indicated Outlook 2050. RVO has commissioned consultancy ECHT regie in transitie to develop this working paper. Research and analysis are done in collaboration with consultancy Qeam. It is based on desk research, industry consultation, and an extension of the Dutch offshore wind labour market indications given by Knol & Coolen (2019). Key stakeholders from the Dutch industry have been consulted to offer specific employment-related data and/or to give a reflection on this working paper.
Content of this working paper
Chapter 2 gives a brief overview of global and European developments in offshore wind. The Dutch developments in offshore wind are also briefly described in chapter 2. Chapter 3 presents post 2030 direct employment indications. Chapter 4 focuses briefly on an offshore wind package – as an example - that has not come to fulfilment in the Netherlands (in terms of employment) and is valuable for the international offshore wind industry: nacelle supply. The last chapter gives conclusions and recommendations. The document has 4 appendixes.